Apple iPhone12 series will be released soon. This time Apple will bring four iPhone models at once, all of which support 5G networks. Today (12th), Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi released a report saying that Yujingguang's EPS may not grow in 2021 due to negative effects, including: Apple lens new business model, new entrants progress better than expected, and Largan price competition.
The change in the business model of Apple's lens will help Sunny Optical and Semco obtain orders and increase market share. It is expected that the ODM proportion of Apple lenses will fall from 30-40% in 2020 to less than 10% in 2021. Benefiting from this, the development and shipment progress of Sunny Optical and Semco are significantly better than expected. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Largan The price pressure on Apple's lenses from Light and Yujingguang will increase significantly from 2021. Largan can still reduce some of the pressure by obtaining more Android mid- and high-end orders, but Yujingguang is the biggest loser because it is unable to do so.
Sunny Optical expects to ship a large number of iPhone and iPad lenses from 2021. Benefiting from the cost advantage, ASP is 25–35% and 10–15% lower than that of Liguang and Yujingguang, respectively. Since Sunny Optical’s iPad 5P lens development progress is significantly better than expected, it has obtained the qualification to develop the new 2H21 iPhone 7P lens. It is predicted that Sunny Optical will start shipping the new iPhone 12 7P wide-angle lens from 2H21, and the shipment proportion is expected to reach about 10 %. As for the iPad 5P lens, mass production is expected in 1Q21 and the shipment proportion of this lens will reach 15-20%.
Semco has successfully shipped the iPhone SE 6P rear lens. The ASP is 10-20% lower than that of Liguang and Yujingguang, and the shipment proportion is 15-20%. It is expected to continue to increase its market share in 2021. We predict that Semco will obtain about 50% of orders for the new iPhone telephoto lens in 2022 through vertical integration with VCM.
According to the report, Yujingguang's revenue and EPS will grow significantly in 2019 and 2020. The market generally believes that this is due to the improvement of Yujingguang's technology and increasing the proportion of iPhone high-end lens shipments. However, Guo Mingchi believes that the key reason is that Apple began to actively design its own lenses about 3 years ago. Many of Apple’s lenses were designed by Largan in the past, so when mass production is transferred to Yujingguang, it often faces yield problems and infringement risks. This change can significantly reduce the design difficulty, production threshold and infringement risks.
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